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NBA Playoffs: Zig-Zag Theory

The Zig-Zag theory is mostly seen in the NBA (national basketball association) playoffs. It states that the series usually shifts back and forth between the two teams in a series. In other words, teams switch off victories, whereby one team wins game one and loses game two, but wins game three, and loses game four, et cetera. This angle also applies to ATS (against the spread) victories. But, in recent years, oddsmakers have severely accounted for this angle—making such a theory virtually useless in superficial playoff betting. This article, though, will show that the zig-zag theory is still somewhat applicable in today’s NBA.

Like all angles, the Zig Zag theory should not be used alone, instead it should be used in conjunction with other strong angles to provide the sports bettor the best chance to show profit. The savvy sports handicapper must use several angles and trends that have been proven to show results. As such, the Zig Zag theory is strongest when two teams are relatively equal in strength and talent level. A modified Zig Zag theory can also be applied to home-dominated series (a series wherein the road team has a tough time winning a game). Usually such teams are good at home, but horrible on the road. A case in point is the current Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls first round series. At the time of writing, the Heat are a paltry 17-26 on the road, but 27-14 at home; while the Bulls are 18-23 and 33-10 at home. The author predicts that this series will go to completion at game 7, where by the majority of the games will be won by the home team (and cover). If a road team happens to steal a victory, the series may in fact become shorter.

The Zig Zag theory is not entirely useless at this point; instead, one must use it with other angles—another great angle to use is when a series goes deep. Since the teams involve usually know the other team, the spreads usually become smaller for the favorite. For example, if team A is favored by 10 points in game one, and if the series goes into completion in game 7, team A would then be favored by approximately 7 points (a 3 point value). If used correctly this ‘value’ play will become profitable. Since the teams have not changed, the bettor is getting ‘value’ on team A in game 7 (if all things are considered equal). Betting favored team A (usually the better team) would result in a value play for the bettor.

In conclusion, the zig zag theory is well alive in the NBA playoffs.