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NFL Divisional Playoffs
NBA Playoffs: Underperforming Teams
Perception is a funny thing. Similar to the NFL (national football league), the NBA (national basketball association) playoffs plays on the perception of its followers. One team is not as bad as its last performance, and vice versa. A ‘good’ team can be as ‘bad’ in its next game, given the right circumstances. This article will show that teams undergo cycles and can only be predicted using conventional handicapping tools.
Perhaps the greatest angle to consider is backing a team that is down 0-2 and heading back home for game 3. Such teams will be highly motivated and play to their potential in game 3. The play becomes stronger if said team performs rather poorly in games 1 and 2 (thus creating perception problems). The general public loves to back teams who are winning, and thus, backing a team getting points in game 3 is a ‘good’ bet. On the contrary, if the home team is able and has the capacity to beat the visiting team, then backing the visiting team is a bad bet.
Backing a team in the NBA playoffs which had one of its star players have a bad game is also a good bet. For example, in the 2007 playoffs, Kobe Bryant scored a measly 15 points in the second game of the series against the Suns. Bryant responded by exploding for 45 points and leading his team to a 95-89 victory to the aforementioned Suns. Bryant willed his team to win this game and more than made up for his lackluster performance in his last outing.
Similar to a team, when a star player underperforms, they usually play their best in their next game. The public, on the other hand, bites and goes against said superstar(s). This is one of the main reasons why sportsbooks exist and sports bettors in general lose money.
In closing, the sports bettor has to be very careful in underperforming teams. Perception is a great angle to consider in NBA playoffs: whereby a team is not as bad as its last game. Superstars also step up during this time—when such a player underperforms, look for such a player to step it up the next time he / she plays.
