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NBA Playoffs: Motivation

Someone once said that the NBA (national basketball association) season really starts during the playoffs. This sentiment can be explained by the fact that the regular season is truly long (82 games) and that most often players are not motivated for every regular season play. In the NBA playoffs, though, every player is motivated on both sides of the ball (even if a team is down 0-3 in a series). The sports handicapper, then, must look into which team will be more motivated, or perhaps less motivated in specific spots. This article will highlight some key spots where motivation will play key.

The easiest motivational spot in the NBA playoffs is to back the home team coming back home from a 0-2 start of a series. These home teams desperately need to win game 3 to keep their playoff chances alive, alas such teams usually do well. On the flip side, teams up 2-0 can somewhat relax and not try their ultimate best. The author has found that such teams show a lackluster performance in game 3, but come back strong in game 4.

Another great situation spot is to back a higher seed team in game 3 if such a team had a split in its first two games. For example if a high seeded team split its first two games at home, such a team will want to regain the homecourt advantage by winning game 3. Game 3 is the easiest game to win for the road team if the series is tied 1-1 (reason being is that Game 4 usually belongs to the home team). Teams like the Spurs and the Pistons thrive in such situations.

An interesting scenario happens when a team is up 3-0. Conventional wisdom would state that the team down 0-3 would fight back and at least win one game. But the reality is that teams up 3-0 in a 7 game series usually sweep and do not let up. The main motivational factor here is rest for the team up 3-0 and a negative motivational factor for the team down 0-3. Both teams are in opposite directions and usually the better team will sweep the series.

In conclusion, motivation is a great angle to consider when betting the NBA playoffs.