NFL Divisional Playoffs

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Miami looks to closeout the Pistons

by David Pincus
2006-06-02

For three years the Detroit Pistons have remained nearly identical to the team that knocked off the Lakers in 2004. The counterpart Miami hasn't taken that approach. With injuries, chemistry problems, and a huge team makeover that even went as far as to change the coach, the Heat are very different from the Pistons. Though different will mean better if they can pull off the win tonight.

So far in this postseason, the home team is 0-3 when leading the series 3-2 and playing Game 6 at home. Phoenix barely snuck by the Lakers, the Spurs won because of Jason Terry's absence, and the Pistons won because the Cavs couldn't grab a rebound.

Detroit's Game 5 win on Wednesday gives them momentum where they previously had none. Since Game 1, where the Heat came in and defeated Detroit handily, the Pistons haven't looked like the same team that won 64 games. But they know that if they win tonight, they'll play at home for Game 7, where the advantage will once again be with the Pistons.

Like the Mavericks, the Heat are a good enough team to win on the road in a Game 7. However the odds certainly wouldn't be with them, since 84% of the home teams win Game 7's. Miami will have kept in mind last year's Game 7 where they fell 88-84 at home.

Detroit will need to dictate the pace if they want to win. They'll want the score to be right around 90, but anything too much lower would mean they were struggling on offense. Prince and Hamilton will need to combine for at least 40 points. There cannot be a weak link for the Pistons in their starting five; often Ben or Rasheed Wallace will simply disappear.

Miami would like to get the score as high as possible, preferably near triple-digits. The Heat cannot afford to play catch-up against the Pistons; they need to get off to a good start to secure a win. Obviously Shaq and Wade need to score as much points as possible. They combined for 39 in Game1 and won by 4, 52 in Game 4 and won by 11, and 62 in Game 3 and won by 15. Also Haslem and Walker need to combine for about 20 points and 10 rebounds.

Detroit failed to win the previous two games in Miami. However it won't matter if Detroit can pull off the win tonight. As we saw with the Lakers and Cavaliers, losing the lead in a series doesn't sit well for Game 7's (the Finals-bound Mavs are the lone exception). Miami has been better than Detroit throughout the playoffs, which includes this series. Now they just have to be better for one more game and they get a trip to the Finals.