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Week 6 Picks - (1-1 Record)

[Over-Under] - Philadelphia Eagles / New Orleans Saints OVER 46.5 (1.5 Units) - Step 1 to betting over-unders is to look for the highest totals and see if you can bet the overs. Step 2 is to look for the lowest totals and see if you can bet the unders. This might seem contrary to the concept of trying to get value but it is not. So many games end up 35-31 and the maximum total furnishable on an NFL over-under would generally be in the mid-50s. Then the lowest total furnishable is generally in the mid-30s but you still see many games ending up at 14-3. You have 10 points of value in either case. The Eagles game represents the highest total on the board. If this were in week 11, the total here would be 54.5 guaranteed. That is just because more betting action in Week 11 means more novice gamblers. And novice gamblers love betting overs. Anyways, there is not much analysis here except that the fewest number of points the Eagles got all season is 24. The fewest number of points the Saints got is 18 but the Saints are at home today and going up against one of the league's worst defenses. Add it all up and 46.5 is a bit too low. This game has about 10 points of value.

San Francisco 49ers +9.5 over San Diego Chargers (1.0 Units) - This is a lot of points for a interconference team to cover on the road. Everybody in San Diego blamed their fluke loss against the Steelers last season as the reason they did not make the playoffs. They also felt that with the Steelers winning the Super Bowl that it should have been them instead! Well, they got their revenge against a team in a much needed win situation and was off a bye. That shows a lot of testament to the character of these Charges. But will they be super charged against the Niners today? That bit of unknown coupled with the Niners decent play at home makes this a reasonable play. Also remember that the Niners have a bye coming up and their first opponent back from it will be the Bears. They know the Bears will be tough so they will be leaving their all on the field today.

 
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