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Week 15 Picks - Dec. 17, 2006

What teams are the public betting on this week?

Cleveland Browns +11 over Baltimore Ravens (2.0 Units) -This is a battle of AFC North rivals. But it not much of a rivalry considering Cleveland is 4-9. But it is not totally their fault. They are 0-5 in the division. 4-4 outside the AFC North. We expect Cleveland to play hard today. They had that upset win over Kansas City after coming off a shutout loss against a division rival. Now, similarly they are coming off an embarrassing loss against Pittsburgh but this time they are playing on the road and against a division rival. But it all gets calculated into the spread anyways. Baltimore has won 6 out of its 10 games by double digits. It is basically a flip the coin type of proposition to believe they can cover double digit spreads. With Pittsburgh (road) game on deck, we expect to see a Baltimore team that looks past its opponent.

Buffalo Bills - 1 over Miami Dolphins (2.0 Units) - Miami gets the 21-0 win last week against the Patriots and because of it, we see difficulty in believing that they can continue on strong. The caveat to all of that is that they are 5-1 L6 and feel they have a shot at the playoffs if they can win each and every upcoming game. These Bills have also been playing well since their bye. 4-2 with a 1 point loss to Indianapolis and a 3 point loss to San Diego. Both losses you cannot blame them.

Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (1.5 Units) - Everybody knows these Steelers are defending champions of the NFL. They have just won two impressive games at home. And public perception is they will return back to Super Bowl form but the truth may be the opposite. Those games were at home. They played weak opponents. They were coming off an embarrassing 27-0 loss against a division rivalry. Public perception is skewing the odds here and the Panthers are the better value play.

[OVER-UNDER] St. Louis Rams @ Oakland Raiders Over 38.5 (1.5 Units) - Starting at 4-1 this season, the Rams were looking good. But now they are 1-7 L8. Not looking good at all but they are playing another pretty bad team in the Raiders. Offensively, the Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league. Defensively, they are pretty good. This has the making of an under since the Raiders at home and could dictate momentum. But when two loser teams face off this late in the season with nothing to play for. The defensive intensity will generally be non-existent and help the over. Lean: Over.

Indianapolis Colts -3 over Cincinnati Bengals (1.5 Units) - The Bengals have reeled off 4 straight winis. The Colts are mired in hell right now, going 1-3 L4. Both teams are totally in opposite directions. But things can change without notice. The Colts are at home where they are 6-0 on the season. The Bengals are going to have to match the Colts intensity but it will be hard to do. How many 10-3 teams are coming home off of two consecutive losses? Not many, but what the Colts do to the Bengals will not be pretty.

[OVER-UNDER] New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings Over 41 (1.5 Units) - The Jets are despicable, pathetic, downright horrible. How can they be heading into last week's home game at 7-5 and lose by 18 points at home. Come on. What a crock of shit they are. Someone should shoot their coach. Hang their quarterback. Castrate their running back. And lasso the entire defense and throw them off a cliff. If we bet against them, the a$$holes will win. If we bet on them and they lose, I would have to kill myself. So let's stay away from this game. Lean: Over.