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Football Parlay Calculator
by Kris Lazaro
Parlays, next to teasers, are a sportsbooks' best friend. The low risk, high return may at first seem like a great bet, but once you look at the actual 'odds' and think about the disadvantage you are giving yourself, you will never again play another parlay in your life.
First, let's examine why people play parlays. It may be out of desperation to get a big reward from a small investment, or the thrill of hitting that elusive 3-, 4-, or even 5- team parlay, or it may just be for the hell of it. Nonetheless, note that parlays are the worst bets you can make.
Take for example Joe. He has a bankroll of $1000. Let's see how Joe actually profits from a parlay, and as opposed to just playing each side equally.
Primarily, let's look at Joe's parlay consisting of team A with team B (spread considering). He risks $100 to make a possible profit of $270 (using normal sportsbook parlays odds of 2.7 to 1; some books may have a higher or lower odds payout depending on the book). Now, in order for Joe to win, both team A AND team B must cover their respective spreads, but if either team does not cover, Joe loses his $100.
On the other side, if Joe plays each side $110 to win $100, he has a chance to win $200, push (although he loses $20 on the juice/vigorish), or lose $220. This might sound scary, but in the long run, it is mathematically sound to play sides rather than playing parlays. Following the model below, one can see that out of the four possible situations, only 1 out of the 4 will actually produce a 'big' losing day.
Note that the most likely situation is a push (50% probability of occurring).
In all, parlays are a bad bet. In our next article, we will discuss teasers and the associated odds found within them.
Kris Lazaro
Parlays, next to teasers, are a sportsbooks' best friend. The low risk, high return may at first seem like a great bet, but once you look at the actual 'odds' and think about the disadvantage you are giving yourself, you will never again play another parlay in your life.
First, let's examine why people play parlays. It may be out of desperation to get a big reward from a small investment, or the thrill of hitting that elusive 3-, 4-, or even 5- team parlay, or it may just be for the hell of it. Nonetheless, note that parlays are the worst bets you can make.
Take for example Joe. He has a bankroll of $1000. Let's see how Joe actually profits from a parlay, and as opposed to just playing each side equally.
Primarily, let's look at Joe's parlay consisting of team A with team B (spread considering). He risks $100 to make a possible profit of $270 (using normal sportsbook parlays odds of 2.7 to 1; some books may have a higher or lower odds payout depending on the book). Now, in order for Joe to win, both team A AND team B must cover their respective spreads, but if either team does not cover, Joe loses his $100.
On the other side, if Joe plays each side $110 to win $100, he has a chance to win $200, push (although he loses $20 on the juice/vigorish), or lose $220. This might sound scary, but in the long run, it is mathematically sound to play sides rather than playing parlays. Following the model below, one can see that out of the four possible situations, only 1 out of the 4 will actually produce a 'big' losing day.
Scenario Team A Team B 1 W W 2 L W 3 W L 4 L L
Note that the most likely situation is a push (50% probability of occurring).
In all, parlays are a bad bet. In our next article, we will discuss teasers and the associated odds found within them.
Kris Lazaro
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