NFL Divisional Playoffs

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Oregon Ducks vs. South Florida Bulls

12/31/07

The Oregon Beavers take on the South Florida Bulls this New Year’s Eve in the annual Sun Bowl to be held at Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso, Texas. Oddsmakers have made the Bulls a 6.5-point favorite, with betting action pushing the line down to its current line of Bulls –6 points (interestingly enough the majority of money has been flowing on the Bulls).

The Oregon Ducks have not been the same since losing quarterback Dennis Dixon in their game against the Arizona Wildcats last November (in fact they are 0-3 both straight up and against the number). Most recently, the Oregon Ducks lost in overtime to their chief instate rival, the Oregon State Beavers by the score of 38-31 and losing the favored 1 point spread given them. This team will also be without the services of their backup quarterback, Brady Leaf, as he is doubtful with an ankle injury. Although things seem bad for the ducks the author feels that they will stay within the number, mainly due to their rushing offense, which averages 243.8 yards per game.

The South Florida Bulls have had an amazing year this year. Coming off 3 wins (and covering them), the Bulls are confident that they will have a great bowl this year. They are 9-3 on the season and 7-4 against the spread. They average 35.8 points per game, while allowing 20.7 points per contest. The author feels that this ‘low’ line might tempt others to blindly bet the Bulls, but the please heed this warning: the Sun Bowl has produced an inordinate amount of underdog ATS winners. In fact, with the reverse line movement working in this game, the author would not fully trust the Bulls to win this game, let alone cover.

In a shocker, the Ducks cover and win the game.

Game prediction: 28-10 Oregon.