NFL Divisional Playoffs

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Ohio State Buckeyes Vs Louisiana State Tigers

1/7/08

by Kris Lazaro

After a long bowl season, ripe with upsets and drama, and after a long college football season, also impregnated with unforeseen wins and unprecedented occurrences, the sport of college football will finally wind down this Monday for yet another year. The 5th and final Bowl Championship Series game will culminate in the Louisiana Superdome as the Buckeyes of Ohio State (Big 10 champions) take on the Tigers of Louisiana State (SEC champions) in what should be a great championship game. Oddsmakers initially pegged the Tigers an opening 6-point favorite, but betting action (mostly sharp) has plummeted the line to its current state of 3.5 points. At the time of writing, some books still have 4 or 4.5, but as we get closer to game time, this line will get closer and closer to a field goal. Although the Tigers can be considered the ‘home team’ since their campus is but a stone throw away from the Superdome, do not count this as such, as the author will point out key factors that will actually make this game a ‘homefield disadvantage’.

The LSU Tigers have been college football’s elite for some time now. This is their second appearance in a BCS Championship game in less than 5 years, and their defense is consistently ranked at the top of the rankings year after year. This year’s edition of the Tigers is no different, as this team is allowing 19.6 points per game and 283.8 yards to the opposition. The thing that makes this team great is the fact that they are coming out of the always-tough SEC conference. The Southern Eastern Conference is arguably the best conference in college football. There is never a shortage of talent in the SEC, and teams who represent from this conference in bowl games usually enjoy great success. Defense is a big reason why most of these teams win. Programs like LSU, Auburn, Georgia, and Florida all deem defense their number one priority. As such, teams from this conference continually do great things.

In terms of the National Championship game, LSU can be proud of the fact that it will field perhaps one of its better defensive units in recent memory. The Tigers squad is littered with future NFL talent, and the author would like to point out that the second string of this team would be the first string in many other programs. This year, the Tigers, BCS #2, are 11-2 straight up, but amazingly only 5-7-1 against the spread. Away from home, they are 4-1 and 2-3 against the number. Quarterback Matt Flynn, who is completing 55.1% of his passes and has a 17:10 touchdown to interception ratio this season, leads the Tiger offense into the championship game.

In actuality, the Tigers are lucky to be in this game. After losing to the Arkansas Razorbacks in their penultimate game, by the score of 50-48 and not covering the 7-point home favorite spread, the Tigers’ national title hopes were all but gone. But, after defeating the Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC championship game a week later, and combined with losses in the top 5 in the last week of the season, the Tigers were promoted to the BCS national championship game.

The author does not entirely trust this Tigers squad, even though they might out-talent the Buckeyes on paper. After a strong start to kick off the season, the Tigers seem to simply ‘beat’ their opponents. The author has noticed that this team plays down to their competition, a factor that is detrimental to covering the spread. The Tigers’ supposed homefield advantage in this game might also mislead some to take LSU—but bettor beware. Teams close to home usually do not fare as well, for they will be a little bit more nervous playing in front of their family and friends. In short, LSU will fall short in this game—although they do have the talent and skills, their cockiness will lead to their downfall.

This will be a repeat visit for the Ohio State Buckeyes. They were here last year, well almost here—as anyone who saw them play last year, this statement will all but make sense. They were rubbed out and humiliated by the Florida Gators, by the score of 41-14; they also did not cover the high 7-point spread given them by the oddsmakers. The author, though, loves this fact, as head coach Jim Tressel will have his troops fired up for this game. He will used this complacency angle to teach his players about the value of rest and preparation. After defeating long time rival, the Michigan Wolverines this year, by the score of 14-3, and covering the 4-point road favorite spread, the Buckeyes have shown that they can and will win on the road, despite impossible conditions.

The Buckeyes, who are BCS #1, are 11-1 on the season and 7-4 against the spread. On the road, they are a perfect 5-0 and 4-1 against the number. They are averaging 32.0 points per game, while allowing 10.7 points per contest (the league best). Although some may argue that the Big 10 is not as competitive as the SEC, the author would still like to point out that the Michigan Wolverines beat the Florida Gators this year in the Capital One Bowl, and it is not too uncommon for Big 10 schools to beat SEC schools.

The media has also lit a fire under the Buckeyes. Media outlets have been taunting the Buckeyes for being ‘slow’ and uncompetitive for this national championship game. Taunts like these are what college football players live for, and the author recommends fading such inane comments. The Buckeyes will come out strong and learn from their mistakes from last year.

Lastly, number 1 and number 2 matchups have traditionally been great. Historically, backing the underdogs in these contests have proved profitable. In closing, this should be a great football where defense will rule and the points will matter until the very end.

Game prediction: 33-31 Ohio State.