NFL Divisional Playoffs

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Air Force Falcons vs. California Golden Bears

12/31/07

The Air Force Falcons take on the California Golden Bears this Monday, December 31, 2007 in the annual Armed Forces Bowl at the Amon Carter Center in Forth Worth, Texas. This will be the early game, the first game of 6 scheduled this New Year’s Eve day, and it promises to be a great game for one of the teams in the matchup.

Oddsmakers
Opened the line at Bears –3.5, but betting action has pushed it to its current line Bears –4.5.

The Air Force Falcons come into this game winning 6 of their last 7 games, covering all 7 in the set; most recently, they beat the San Diego State Aztecs by the score of 55-23, consequently covering the 13-point home favorite spread. The Falcons are 9-3 on the season, and a remarkable 9-2 on the spread. On the road they are 3-3, but still a profitable 4-2 against the spread. The Falcons’ strength relies on their rushing game, where they average 298.5 yards on the ground. Their ability to effectively run the option also greatly confuses their opposition. In general, armed forces teams who are underdogs in bowl games are usually also great bets.

The Cal Bears are in disarray. They are 1-6 in their last 7 games and have not covered any games in that set; most recently, they lost to the Stanford Cardinal by the score of 20-13, also losing the 13.5 road favorite spread given them. Ever since Cal lost to Oregon State, the Golden Bears have not been so golden. They have been on a downward spiral and have not recovered ever since. Cal has been outrushed in 5 of those 7 games since then, and the author does not see that changing anytime soon, including this bowl game.

The Falcons keep this close, perhaps winning the game straight up.

Game prediction: 44-40 Air Force.