61% NBA Playoffs Betting Systems: Zig-Zag Theory

NBA Basketball Playoffs Systems: Zig Zag Theory

NFLSystems.com

2/20/05

Paul Bachar

The Zig Zag theory states that you should go for a team in the playoffs if it lost its previous game straight up to the team it is currently playing. The theory is simple: the losing team will be more motivated and desperate having lost its previous game. Also, since it lost its previous game, the spread will move against our team.

Excluding the strike shortened season, let us run the numbers on 8 of the past 9 seasons. Of the 470 total playoff games played, this system won 53.0% of the time. From the 95-96 season until the 97-98 season this system was 55.8%. The past 5 seasons, this system has only been 51.5%. Again, with -110 juice and a required 52.4% strike rate, we will have lost money over the past 5 seasons.

Avid followers of our website NFLSystems.com know that most "simple" systems are very close to 50%. If they were not, oddsmakers would quickly identify it and adjust accordingly. This is why there is the disparity between the system's performance the past 5 seasons versus the 3 seasons prior to that. Earlier, the spread would move towards the SU loser of the prior matchup but now it moves against them. For example, if a 5 point underdog loses game #1. For game #2, they would become 4 point underdogs anticipating the zig zag theory at work instead of 6 points.

Public perception for playoff games is very key because the bookies and sportsbooks take in extra public money during the playoffs. My guess is that if the team were to win large, the spread would either remain in tact or move towards the winning team. Over the 8 seasons dating back to 1995, only twice did it perform below the 54% clip.

Analyzing it further, I noticed that in order to make this system pop, the team that had lost by DD did so on the road but is now currently playing at home. Constraining it in this way leads to a system that is 49-31-2 ATS over the past 8 seasons. The Home Court advantage is worth about 6-7 points in the NBA and for a team to win by DD, the public will not correctly quantify their disadvantage in their next game on the road. Thus, the sharp handicapper gets the edge by taking the home team. In fact, most expert handicappers have a better record in the playoffs because of this.

Once the NBA playoffs start to begin, watch for more informative articles on this subject.

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