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NFL Divisional Playoffs
Top 100 NFL Fantasy Players According to Our Statistics ($9.95)
Sports Trends and Angles to Follow: Against the Spread after a Win
2004-2005 Season
NFLSystems.com 2/14/05
Paul Bachar
There are many trends we look at when determining who to back with our money. We look at ATS records for all sorts of things such as Home/Away, off a SUL, head-to-head, conference/interconference, on x number of days rest, etc. For example, we have all grown accustomed to systems for teams off a SUL when we know they are great ATS off a SUL. Last year a lot of us made money backing the up and coming Timberwolves off a loss as they posted a 17-7 ATS mark during the regular season in those situations. The Eagles, of the NFL, are another such team that has posted an incredible 11-2 run in those situations before their final 2 games of the 2004 season.
Utilizing all of these types of figures is important for us as handicappers because it helps us to solidify a pick but it is also important to focus on trends that the general public does not follow. I call them hidden trends and they can prove to be more helpful in the long run. Since the public at large gets locked in on a team in any given trend the line starts to lose value with each subsequent game. At some point the contrarion position is the position to take.
With this in mind, I set out to analyze trends that many perhaps do not follow. For example, how do teams do ATS off a SUW? The main reason I chose to analyze this was because in developing many of the systems posted on my website NFLSystems.com, I realized that systems would only work if the opponent was coming off a win and/or my team was coming off a loss. There are many motivational reasons behind this, for example, a team that wins a game will not feel as much desperation in their next game than if they had lost their previous game. If the spread is an indicator of what the score would be under normal conditions, my hypothesis would be that teams off a SUW would perform slighly worse than their "off a SUL" counterparts.
First, I analyzed how teams fared against an opponent off a win. Going for them is 51.4% this season as of Monday February 14th, beating the spread by an average of 0.5 points. Let us make sure that we are not going for a team that is coming off a SUW. Teams coming off a SUL going up against a team off a SUW is 52.7% (193-173-5) this season beating the spread by an average of 1 full point a game. This is an incredible league wide system to be aware of. With -110 juice most of us have at the online sportsbooks, we only need to pull in 52.4% to break even. This simple proposition would be up 2.7 units total so far this season. This is nothing significant but it does let us know that we are on to something.
I can think of many situations where I saw a great performance by a team winning SU as a DD dog only to get blown away their next game, so I checked it out. Going against teams off a SUW as a DD dog so far this season is 8-3-1 and beats the spread on average by 2.2 points per game. Last season it posted an incredible 9-2 mark beating the spread by over 6 points. Over the past three season, with this season included, this system is an incredible 23-7-1, a 77% supersystem.
As of today, going against the Hawks in this situation is 3-0. Going against the Warriors is 2-0.
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