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NFL Divisional Playoffs
Top 100 NFL Fantasy Players According to Our Statistics ($9.95)
Sports Trends and Angles to Follow: Coming off a Loss
2004-2005 Season
NFLSystems.com2/18/05
Paul Bachar
In my "Against the Spread after a Win" article on 2/14, I showed that bad teams were poor ATS coming off a win. Now it was time to analyze how the teams did coming off a loss to these teams. There is nothing like a wake-up call for a team than to lose to a bad team. Since the home court advantage is huge in the NBA, playoff positioning is important. The difference between making the playoffs , being seeded number 4 versus number 5 can come down to one game. The expectation is that a team that loses what should be a "gimme" will bounce back strong in their next game.
First we must choose the teams so I chose the Warriors, Bobcats, Hawks, Hornets, and the Warriors as being the 4 bad teams. Going for teams that lost its previous game to one of these 4 clubs bounce back to be 28-15-2 ATS (65%). If the teams was a DD favorite, it was 7-3 ATS. If instead the teams had lost by DD, they bounce back at 8-4 ATS.
This is statistically significant because we can expect for the public to fade teams that are coming off losses to such pathetic teams and at the same time expect teams to bounce back from embarrasing performances. All in all, you get good value this season going for teams off losses to either the Bobcats, Hawks, Hornets, or Warriors.
If you have been following the systems posted on NFLSystems.com, you would see that we called Golden State to beat the spread versus the Sonics. We did not expect them to pull the upset victory but the fact they did puts the Sonics in this exact system on Tuesday February 22nd on the road versus the Houston Rockets. This systems performs slightly better when our team is playing on the road.
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