We all know that the NBA has a strong homecourt advantage of about 6-8 points. This is quite significant as it represents about 8% of the total points a team will score on average. Nevertheless, the home court advantage is taken into account in every game that is played and thus dating back to 1995, home teams are roughly 50% winners ATS.

The goal of the astute bettor is to find situations where the home court advantage is stronger.

Followers of the sports handicapping systems here at NFL Systems are already aware that the home court advantage is stronger when a team desperately needs a win. They look to their home fans to get them going on the right track. So let us presume our team is on a 4 game losing streak. Home teams in this scenario are 51.4% ATS dating back to 1995 and it improves to 52.7% if they are coming off a road game.

This is a quite interesting phenomena and will be addressed in a later article.

This system is describing the Kings 109-101 victory over the Mavericks. The Mavericks were small 2 point pups in the game and many of you saw this as easy money backing the Mavericks. In fact, 92% of the Moneyline bets were on the Mavericks. The Kings, who just a few days ago lost for the second straight time to the Warriors within a week were looking quite bad. The Mavericks on the other hand have been a strong road team ATS all season long. The Mavericks have also won 3 straight games against the Kings and there was nothing indicating otherwise.

I knew better than to take the trap and bet on the Mavericks. I backed the Kings instead. In fact, most people were surprised to hear it.

Above 500 home teams with double revenge or greater this season are an astonishing 26-13 ATS. Kings have a history of a strong home court and for them to only be giving up 2 points was a really great angle.

You may say "but they lost to the Warriors" a few days ago at home. In fact, that loss helps my side. Had they beat the Warriors by DD as they were expected to do, they might have been giving up 4 points last night and instead of winning by 8 would have won by about the exact same amount, 4 points.

Here is my reasoning, the Kings lost at home to the Warriors for the second straight game inside of a week. They were embarrsed at home and everybody has begun to call them out. Teams in this situation almost always have a great bounce back game in their next home game. This was a perfect game for the Kings to not only bounce back from their earlier home loss but to bounce back against their hated Playoff Rivals for the past several seasons and keep from having a season sweep. Therefore, instead of winning by 8 points as they did they probably would have won by 4 points. The spread also adjusts in our favor with the loss. Since the overriding belief is that the Kings no longer have a Home Court Advantage, the spread moves towards the road team.

When handicapping sports, it is important to analyze a team's motivation, especially at home. In the NBA, it is pretty hard to stop a motivated team at home.

Online Sports Betting Articles