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NFL Divisional Playoffs
Top 100 NFL Fantasy Players According to Our Statistics ($9.95)
Trends for 2005: Inexperienced Cleveland Cavaliers
NFLSystems.com2/19/05
Paul Bachar
Everyone is familiar with the success that the Cleveland Cavaliers have had this season. At the All Star Break they are 9 games above .500 and have not only positioned themselves in the playoff picture but they have a chance to win the Central division. The truth of the matter is that they are an inexperienced bunch and chances are still slim that they win the division down the stretch over the defending Champion Detroit Pistons.
Their inexperience this season has shown considerably. At home they are 14-10-1 ATS and on the road are 12-12-1 ATS. The Home statistics may seem significant considering they are 58% ATS at home but they started the season 6-1 ATS at home. The oddsmakers have now correctly quantified the spread with respect to Cavaliers home games having them posted at 8-9-1 since their game versus the New Jersey Nets on December 7, 2004. Their inexperience shows during road games as it does for most young teams despite the 50% ATS mark.
On the road against above .500 teams, they are on a measly 0-6 ATS run but and against below .500 teams are are on a 6-1 ATS run. The disparity is quite clear. Winning on the road in the NBA is tough. The Cavaliers understand that and have been coming to play when they expect that they can win on the road and have simply gone through the motions in the games they feel they cannot win. The Cavs had a 6 game road trip that began on January 13th and ended January 22nd. Against the above-500 teams they were 0-3 and were 3-0 against the sub-500 teams. The Cavaliers knew that their chances were slim to beat the Sonics and Kings on the road so they chose to save their energy for more winnable games. This is why you see the disparity for this inexperienced club. They will come to play on the road only when they believe they have a shot to win.
On a 12-1 ATS run (92.3%) heading into the All Star Break, I expect to continue to follow this trend. Coupled with other trends, I will have a strong play.
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