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Sports Systems Explained
Basketball Systems
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Looking Ahead
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Sandwich
NBA Contrarian Betting Systems
Going against the public. (67.3%)
System:
Go for a road dog of less than 4 points if the dog has won 5 or less road games in their last ten attempts and the favorite has won 8 or more home games in their last ten attempts.
Analysis:
How many times have you looked at the odds and saw a small home favorite of about 3 points and said, "Oh yeah! This team is going to win, let me lay the 3 points. There is a reason why the road team is only a 3 point dog. The fact that our team has been playing poorly on the road lately and the favorite has been playing great at home indicates that the spread was likely skewed in favor of the home team. Take the contrarian.
Record (Past 11 years): 68-33-0
Avg. margin of victory: 3.1 ppg
Going against the public #2. (65.5%)
System:
Go against a road team that won its previous game by more than 30 points on the road.
Analysis:
People tend to overemphasize large victories, especially if they happen on the road. Since home teams are favored about 7.0 points more than if they were on the road, we suspect that after a blowout victory this gets tilted adding value to our team.
Record (Past 11 years): 19-10
Avg. margin of victory: 2.1 ppg
Stick with the Upset (80.0%)
System:
Go for an away team with zero days rest off a Road SUW as a 5.5+ dog if its opponent is coming off a road loss. Opponent's ATS record off a loss must be less than 50%
Analysis:
First of all, we are going for a team that won as Road Dog of greater than 5 points. This is a scenario where people would fade that team especially since it is playing its next game on zero days rest and on the road. Since our team has no rest and is travelling, we can expect to get a few extra points in the spread. Since our opponent is coming back home off a road loss, we expect them to pull it together against our team. To rule out teams that are truly good off a loss, we added the last line in the system. If we go against teams whose opponents' ATS record off a loss is 50% or greater, this system is only 13-11.
Record (Past 11 years): 20-5-1, 1-0 this year
Avg. margin of victory: 6.9 ppg
