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|HOME >> BETTING SYSTEMS >> BOUNCEBACK
NBA Bounce-Back Theory Betting Systems
Losing Trend (65.6%)
Go for any road team off two or more losses in which two games ago it lost by exactly 1 point.
So we are looking at a team that lost a game after it had already lost a game by 1 point. This is a situation that truly favors our team in terms of motivation. I analyzed this many different ways: ATS record off a loss, whether it is a dog or favorite, etc. and always hits at about a 66% clip. This is a perfection situation in which to get a team that will bounce back.
Record (Past 11 years): 65-34-2
Avg. margin of victory: 3.3 ppg
Where's the Offense? (65.4%)
Go for any home team with more than 0 days rest that scored less than 70 points in its previous game if that game was on the road.
Rarely do teams score less than 70 points but two things happen when they do. First, the systems public fades them because of their poor performance pushing the spread in the opponents direction. Second, the team looks to right the ship with their prior embarrasing performance. It is easier to right the ship under the favorable home conditions as opposed to being on the road. Road teams in this situation are only 26-23 ATS.
Record (Past 11 years): 34-18-2, 4-2 this year
Avg. margin of victory: 3.0 ppg
Take the Motivated over the Complacent (72.3%)
Go for any team scoring less than 80 in its previous game with revenge against its current opponent if that team scored greater than 115 points in its previous game.
Very simple yet very effective system. This could also be filed under a revenge game but I feel that it is more of a bounce back game in that the team is following a poor scoring performance. Since its opponent scored well over 115 points in its previous game, they are probably complacent going up against the team it is currently playing since they already beat them once earlier in the season. Another thing is that the spread gets tilted in our favor three ways. The line gets shifted in the opponent's direction because they are seen as more dominant having scored well over 115 points and already winning once this season against our team. The spread also gets tilted away from our team because of their earlier poor scoring performance. Well, they bounce back at 72% rate.
2004-2005 Season: This is 1-0 this season. With its only game coming with an Atlanta Hawks 13 point home victory over the Dallas Mavericks as a DD dog, beating the spread by over 23 points!! Atlanta's prior game was a defeat at the hands of these very same Mavericks 90-68. I guarantee a lot of you lost your money backing the Mavericks to get the DD sweep.
Record (Past 11 years): 29-9
Avg. margin of victory: 4.9 ppg